The Opportunity Report

The Monster stalking EXPO Real

Just like mipim, sentiment at expo real provides a bellweather for the European property industry. In 2008 as the banking industry wobbled on its foundations exposing the true indebtedness of real estate, the mood was characterised by nervous laughter as even the safest of bets began to look uncertain. 2009 and 2010, by contrast were full of purpose as the industry began to put the worst behind them and drive projects forward.

Expo in 2011 had been moved back a day to accommodate the unification day bank holiday which, in turn, extended the Oktoberfest by a day. Staying close to the Theresienwiese fairground, it seemed sensible enough to visit the festival on the Monday and then go to Expo Real from Tuesday onwards.

Oktoberfest is a family event and, although there is a great deal of beer drinking, the event feels safe and comfortable with traditional dress  worn by many of the largely happy participants. But, like any fairground, there are rides aplenty, including the one known as the Monster.

The Monster is an enormous vertical pendulum with seats at one end. As the pendulum swings, back and forth initially then round and round, the seats spin round. Sober this must be a disorientating experience, but then sober I probably would not have bought the tickets.  After a few glasses of beer the ride is simply terrifying. Throughout the entire experience I could not place the ground, the direction or the sky come to that.

 

Actually a Monster casts a long shadow across European real estate markets as far as the Messe itself. At Expo there is always lots of beer to drink and food to eat. Traditional dress is much in evidence - particularly striped ties - and this year disorientated participants run away from southern European stands looking for core investments. This monster is macro-currency risk and it is paralysing the markets.

According to the bulls, by Expo Real 2012 the Monster will have moved on and the show will be back to its purposeful best. Others see a much longer ride with more swings of the pendulum before we return to the ground.

How green is my city?

In support of Savills assertion that German offices are green by default - it seems that, compared to other European cities, Germany's urban centers are better than average and among the best when it comes to protecting the climate and the environment. This is the finding of the German Green City Index, an urban study commissioned by Siemens from the Economist Intelligence Unit. 

The study (in German) scores each city in eight areas: Air quality, CO2 emissions, Energy, Buildings, Traffic, Water quality, Litter and Environmental management.

As far as CO2 emissions are concerned Stockholm and Oslo are way out in front but London does pretty well with an above average score alongside Berlin, Paris and Helsinki amongst others. The laggards here are Kiev and Sofia but there are a clutch of below average cities including Dublin, Budapest and Prague.

Predictably, London does badly as far as traffic is concerned alongside Paris and Rome amongst others, but is in the middle of the pack with respect to building standards, energy, air quality and litter. 

The latter feels counter intuitive. Perhaps it is the discarded coffee cups bowling down the road on a stiff breeze or the forests worth of free papers littering the station precincts or just the remains of last night's chicken Dansak thrown out of the car window, but London feels full of rubbish.

As far as building standards are concerned, all the German cities studied are above average with the exception of Cologne. A similar story can be seen as far as traffic management is concerned except the miscreant here is Leipzig - only average I am afraid.

Water quality sees all the German cities above average bar none. London's water also passed with flying colours (five times!). Air quality saw a broader spread with Athens one of the laggards - tear gas probably the reason.