Just like mipim, sentiment at expo real provides a bellweather for the European property industry. In 2008 as the banking industry wobbled on its foundations exposing the true indebtedness of real estate, the mood was characterised by nervous laughter as even the safest of bets began to look uncertain. 2009 and 2010, by contrast were full of purpose as the industry began to put the worst behind them and drive projects forward.
Expo in 2011 had been moved back a day to accommodate the unification day bank holiday which, in turn, extended the Oktoberfest by a day. Staying close to the Theresienwiese fairground, it seemed sensible enough to visit the festival on the Monday and then go to Expo Real from Tuesday onwards.
Oktoberfest is a family event and, although there is a great deal of beer drinking, the event feels safe and comfortable with traditional dress worn by many of the largely happy participants. But, like any fairground, there are rides aplenty, including the one known as the Monster.
The Monster is an enormous vertical pendulum with seats at one end. As the pendulum swings, back and forth initially then round and round, the seats spin round. Sober this must be a disorientating experience, but then sober I probably would not have bought the tickets. After a few glasses of beer the ride is simply terrifying. Throughout the entire experience I could not place the ground, the direction or the sky come to that.
Actually a Monster casts a long shadow across European real estate markets as far as the Messe itself. At Expo there is always lots of beer to drink and food to eat. Traditional dress is much in evidence - particularly striped ties - and this year disorientated participants run away from southern European stands looking for core investments. This monster is macro-currency risk and it is paralysing the markets.
According to the bulls, by Expo Real 2012 the Monster will have moved on and the show will be back to its purposeful best. Others see a much longer ride with more swings of the pendulum before we return to the ground.
